Russia Tests the West’s Boundaries: An Analysis of Hybrid Attacks on European Infrastructure
The following content is derived from an analysis by Zeit.
Russia is increasingly carrying out targeted acts of sabotage on Western infrastructure to test the West’s responses. These attacks, targeting both civilian and strategic assets, raise questions about how the West should respond to this form of hybrid warfare. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea, such as the damage to critical cables and energy connections, illustrate how Russia seeks to probe the West’s resilience and challenge so-called “red lines.”
Sabotage and Its Impact on Western Infrastructure
A particularly notable incident occurred recently in the Baltic Sea, where two critical cables, serving both as data links and for power transmission between Finland and Estonia, were damaged. Intriguingly, this attack coincided with the passage of an oil tanker from St. Petersburg, with Finnish authorities noting that the vessel was sailing near the damaged infrastructure without an anchor. This is not an isolated incident—back in November 2023, two fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea were destroyed, and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline was targeted a year earlier. These repeated attacks suggest a deliberate strategy by Russia to test the West’s responses to these hybrid threats.
The Challenge of Hybrid Warfare
The West increasingly faces hybrid threats that are difficult to attribute and often non-military in nature. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed concern about “malicious actors” without explicitly naming Russia as the perpetrator. Such cautious language could be interpreted as an invitation to escalate, given the absence of clear attribution and decisive action. While such diplomatic restraint is often deemed necessary, it risks emboldening the aggressor to continue and expand their tactics.
The Rise of Russian Attacks on European Targets
In recent months, there has been a growing number of attacks on European infrastructure. These range from drone strikes on Bundeswehr sites to sabotage acts on defense companies and arson attacks. Targeted cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns are also part of this broad spectrum of hybrid warfare. These actions are cleverly designed not to provoke direct military responses, as they often lack clear attribution to a nation or have only localized impacts. Nevertheless, they paint a picture of a coordinated assault undermining Western security and infrastructure.
The Danger of Tolerating Sabotage
Repeated acts of sabotage that do not immediately trigger NATO’s Article 5 response highlight a worrying shift in the West’s “red lines.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently spoke of the uncertainty between war and peace that the West currently faces. Continuing these attacks without significant Western responses risks normalizing such practices. The danger grows that the West will find itself in an increasingly precarious position, with unclear and inconsistent reactions.
Connectivity Warfare: A New Form of Geopolitical Conflict
Modern warfare increasingly involves “connectivity warfare,” where infrastructure such as cables, energy connections, or communication networks becomes a target. This interconnectedness and the global reliance on stable connections make the West vulnerable. To protect against further attacks, enhanced security strategies are necessary—these include preventive measures like surveillance, patrols, and strengthened digital network security. However, the West must also confront a fundamental question: How much freedom and openness can a society afford without becoming an easy target for such attacks?
The Need for a Decisive Western Response
It is crucial for the West to provide a clear and resolute response to these repeated attacks to maintain a balance of deterrence. A passive stance would not only undermine confidence in the West’s ability to defend itself but also jeopardize NATO’s credibility. An invitation to escalation is dangerous—especially in times of hybrid conflicts where the lines between war and peace are blurred. NATO member states should urgently convene consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty to develop a unified and coordinated response.
Conclusion
Russia’s systematic attacks on European infrastructure and the rise in hybrid threats present a significant challenge to Western security. The West’s restrained response to these attacks, coupled with the lack of attribution to Russia, risks encouraging the aggressor to continue escalating. To defend the West’s red lines, credible deterrence and a resolute collective response are essential. Otherwise, the West may find itself in a dangerous position that undermines its long-term security.
